New data tracking 40,000 keyword terms shows that roughly 14% of Google AI Overviews no longer appear in position 1—and about 6% sit at position 4 or lower. This shift doesn’t mark the end of AI Overviews, but it does signal that SEOs need to rethink how they approach brand visibility in an AI-first search landscape.
Google AI Overviews launched with a clear mandate: dominate the top of the results page. For most of 2024, that’s exactly what they did. But new research published September 4, 2025 by Tom Capper suggests that dominance is quietly eroding.
Using STAT to track 40,000 keyword terms—drawn from 10,000 head terms across two devices and two locations from the MozCast corpus—the data reveals a measurable shift in where AI Overviews actually appear on the SERP. The numbers are small but directionally significant. And if you’re building an SEO strategy around the assumption that AI Overviews are always sitting at position 1, you may need to recalibrate.
What the Data Actually Shows About AI Overview Placement
AI Overviews appeared on approximately 14.3% of all queries in the dataset. That’s a meaningful footprint—but the more telling stat is where they appear.
Of all queries tracked, 2% returned an AI Overview at rank 2 or lower. That might sound minor, but do the math: that’s nearly 1 in 7 AI Overview SERPs where the feature has been pushed below position 1. Put another way, 14% of all AI Overviews are not sitting at the top of the page.
Also Read: AI Search Measurement: 4 Challenges SEOs Must Solve Now
The deeper you go, the more striking it gets. Roughly 6% of AI Overviews appear at position 4 or lower—well below the fold on most screens. On navigational SERPs specifically, the numbers are even more pronounced: 26% of AI Overviews on navigational queries appear below position 1.
These aren’t rounding errors. They represent a real and consistent pattern across a large, diverse keyword set.
Real SERP Examples: AI Overviews Getting Outranked
The data isn’t just abstract percentages. Specific SERP examples illustrate how this plays out in practice:
- [Amtrak routes] — An AI Overview appears in position 6, pushed far down the page by more authoritative navigational results.
- [Starbucks food menu] — The AI Overview lands at position 3, behind what are almost certainly direct brand links or a featured snippet.
- [convert avi to mp4] — The AI Overview sits at position 2, directly beneath a featured snippet that Google has judged more relevant for a task-oriented query.
These examples span navigational, informational, and task-based query types. That variety matters. It suggests Google is applying ranking adjustments to AI Overviews across intent categories—not just in one niche.
Why Is Google Quietly Demoting Its Own AI Feature?
There’s no official statement from Google explaining this shift, so the interpretation requires some careful reasoning.
One plausible explanation: user behavior feedback. If searchers are consistently scrolling past AI Overviews to reach the organic results they actually want—especially on navigational queries where they’re looking for a specific brand or page—Google’s ranking systems will eventually respond to that signal.
Another lens worth considering: Bing’s rollback of prominent AI features after early experiments showed mixed user reception. Google has historically been more measured in how it adjusts visible AI integrations, but the Bing precedent shows that even the most aggressive AI search deployments can pull back when engagement data warrants it.
There’s also Google’s own Web Guide feature, currently in Search Labs, which functions as an AIO/AI Mode hybrid. The existence of Web Guide suggests Google is actively experimenting with different formats and placements for AI-generated answers—and the demotion of standard AI Overviews may be part of that broader testing process.
What This Does Not Mean for SEO
Let’s be direct: this data does not signal a return to pre-AI SERPs.
AI Overviews still appear on 14.3% of queries. They still dominate position 1 on the vast majority of SERPs where they appear. The search experience has fundamentally changed, and no amount of wishful thinking will reverse that.
What this shift does challenge is the fatalistic framing that has taken hold in parts of the SEO industry—the idea that AI Overviews have permanently displaced organic results and that clicks are simply gone. The picture is more nuanced. Google is still calibrating where AI-generated answers belong on the page, and that calibration is responsive to query type, user behavior, and product experimentation.
How Should SEOs Respond to AI Overview Ranking Shifts?
The strategic implication of this data is not “AI Overviews matter less.” It’s closer to: the SERP is more dynamic than it appeared, and brand visibility—not click volume—is the metric that survives any placement change.
Here’s what that means in practice:
Shift your top-of-funnel KPIs. If AI Overviews sometimes appear below position 1, and if those Overviews frequently cite or reference specific brands and sources, then earning mentions in AI-generated answers becomes a visibility play even when it doesn’t drive direct clicks.
Track AIO position, not just presence. Standard rank tracking often records whether an AI Overview exists on a given SERP—not where it sits. The 6% of AIOs appearing at position 4 or lower represent a fundamentally different visibility scenario than position 1. Your reporting should reflect that difference.
Prioritize navigational query defense. With 26% of AI Overviews on navigational SERPs appearing below position 1, brand-owned navigational queries remain largely defensible through traditional SEO. Maintaining strong presence for your own brand terms is no less important—arguably more important—than it was before AI Overviews launched.
Create content that earns AI citations. Whether an AIO appears at position 1 or position 6, being cited within it provides brand exposure. Structured, authoritative, and clearly attributed content remains the most reliable path to that kind of visibility.
The Bigger Picture: A Search Landscape Still in Flux
The research from Tom Capper captures a moment of genuine transition. Google is not abandoning AI Overviews. But the company is clearly still working out where they belong on the page—and under what conditions they deserve to lead.
That uncertainty is actually useful intelligence for SEOs. It means the hierarchy is not locked. It means query intent still drives placement decisions. And it means that building genuine topical authority and brand recognition will continue to matter, regardless of which format Google ultimately chooses to prioritize.
The teams that will navigate this best are those tracking the SERP at a granular level—watching not just for the presence of AI features, but for how their position shifts across query types, devices, and locations. The data exists. The question is whether your strategy is built to respond to it.
Frequently Asked Questions
How often do AI Overviews appear in Google search results?
Based on research tracking 40,000 keyword terms from the MozCast corpus, AI Overviews appear on approximately 14.3% of all queries. Appearance rates vary significantly by query type, device, and location.
Are Google AI Overviews always in position 1?
No. Research by Tom Capper (published September 4, 2025) found that approximately 14% of all AI Overviews do not appear in position 1. Around 6% appear at position 4 or lower, and on navigational SERPs, 26% of AI Overviews appear below position 1.
What types of queries are most likely to have a demoted AI Overview?
Navigational queries show the highest rate of AI Overview demotion, with 26% of AI Overviews on those SERPs appearing below position 1. Task-based and informational queries can also surface demoted AIOs, as seen with examples like [convert avi to mp4] and [Starbucks food menu].
Does this mean AI Overviews are becoming less important for SEO?
Not exactly. The demotion data signals that Google is still calibrating AIO placement, but AI Overviews remain a significant part of the search landscape at 14.3% query coverage. The strategic implication is a shift toward brand visibility and AIO citations rather than traditional click-based metrics.
How should SEOs adjust their strategy in response to this data?
Track AI Overview position—not just presence—in your reporting. Focus on earning citations within AI-generated answers, strengthen navigational query defense for brand terms, and reframe top-of-funnel success around brand mentions and visibility rather than clicks alone.
Is Google’s Web Guide feature related to AI Overview demotion?
Google’s Web Guide, currently in Search Labs, is an AIO/AI Mode hybrid that may represent the next evolution of AI-generated answers in Search. The existence of Web Guide, combined with the ranking data, suggests Google is actively experimenting with how and where AI answers appear—rather than treating the current format as final.
